[1]胡晗,王锐,杜敬文.供给侧改革下我国粮食贸易调控机制研究[J].粮食问题研究,2019,(01):18-28.
 [J].SAMSON,2019,(01):18-28.
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供给侧改革下我国粮食贸易调控机制研究(/HTML)
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粮食问题研究[ISSN:1003-2576/CN:51-1058/F]

卷:
期数:
2019年01期
页码:
18-28
栏目:
粮食安全
出版日期:
2019-01-31

文章信息/Info

作者:
胡晗王锐杜敬文
武汉轻工大学经济与管理学院
关键词:
粮食供给粮食需求粮食贸易调控机制
Keywords:
Food supply demand traderegulation
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
2004年-2015年我国粮食产量实现“十二连增”,在粮食产量年年丰收、粮食进口量逐年增加的同时,我国粮食供需存在不平衡的状况。粮食产业供给侧改革面临粮食总量紧平衡下的“去库存”“调结构”“降成本”等问题。本文运用ARIMA模型,分别建立粮食需求和供给模型,并预测未来粮食的供求量,结果表明我国粮食供给量在未来几年将持续增加,粮食需求量大于供给量,粮食供需缺口现象显著。因此,为保障粮食安全,实现粮食供需平衡,应推动我国粮食产业供给侧结构性改革,在供给侧改革下完善粮食贸易调控机制,促进粮食产业供给侧和需求侧的协调发展。
Abstract:
Abstract:China’s grain output achieved a “serial increase”from 2004 to 2015. With the increase of total grain production and imports year by year, China’s grain imbalance is very serious. The supply-side reform of the grain industry is faced with such problems as “destocking”, “adjusting”, “adjusting the structure” and “reducing the cost” under the cost” under the tight balance of quantity. In this paper, ARIMA model is used to establish the grain demand and supply models respectively and predict the future grain supply and demand. The results shows that China’s grain supply will continue to grow in the next few years, the grain demand is greater than the supply, and the grain supply gap is significant. In order to guarantee grain security and achieve balance between grain supply and demand, we should promote the supply-side reform of China’s grain industry, improve the grain trade regulation mechanism under the supply-side reform, and promote the coordinate development of the supply-side and demand-side of the grain industry.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2019-02-12